April new-vehicle sales is continuing a pace that would make 2024 the best in five years despite a decline from a year ago, according to Cox Automotive.
Sales volume for April is expected to fall 2.2 percent from April 2023 to 1.34 million units. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or selling pace, is expected to finish near 15.9 million, up 0.2 million over last year’s pace and up 0.4 million from March’s 15.5 million level.
Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said in the last 12 months, the new-vehicle SAAR has experienced “some large swings,” with an average sales pace in the mid-15 million level.
Consumer Spending Down
“This month, more volatility in the market is also expected, although the sales pace is anticipated to rise slightly,” said Chesbrough in a press statement. “Despite high interest rates and elevated vehicle prices, consumers remain resilient. Sales growth may be sluggish, but growth continues. And we expect these conditions to persist throughout the year.”
April sales are down 6.8 percent from March, consistent with the U.S. economy growing at a slower pace than expected in the first quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of first quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) published on April 25 showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.6 percent during the period. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted an annualized pace of 2.5 percent.
Cox officials noted healthy inventory levels and rising incentives are spurring to new-vehicle sales as the total supply of available new vehicles was up 46% compared to last April, according to the latest vAuto Live Market View data.
Breakdown by Segment
As by segment, compact SUV/crossover is expected to have the largest number of new car sales, at 260,000—up 16.4 percent from a year ago. The only other category that reported gains from last year were compact cars, up 14.1 percent from April 2023.
Full-size pickup trucks are estimated to decline the most compared to a year ago—down 18 percent with 160,000 new vehicles sold. Rounding out the sales for April are mid-size cars at 75,000 (-13.9 percent from April 2023), mid-size SUV/crossover at 225,000 (-6.3 percent) and all other segments at 510,000 (-3.1 percent).
Cox noted there are 25 selling days in April, one less than last year and two less than last month. Due to adjustments based on the number of selling days, the sales pace is forecast to increase even though sales volume will likely show a decline.
