New car sales in 2023 will increase by double digits when the final count is tabulated, according to one leading industry observer.
New-vehicle sales volume for December 2023 is expected to rise 6.2% over the previous year, according to Cox Automotive officials. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is projected to finish near 15.1 million in December— 1.6 million higher compared to last year—but a slight decline from November 2023’s 15.3 million level.
Additionally, it matches the lowest SAAR of the year, which was recorded in May.
December Strong
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive noted December is generally a strong month for new-vehicle sales as holiday shoppers look for year-end deals.
“This year will be no exception,” said Chesbrough in a press statement released Dec. 27, 2023. “With supply much higher now and incentives higher as well, this December is expected to finish significantly better than last year. But high vehicle prices and high interest rates remain the industry’s Grinch right now, and that trend will continue into next year.”
Overall, 2023 resulted in new-vehicle sales that were stronger and more consistent than expected throughout 2023 that were driven by growing deliveries, improving supply levels and higher incentives, according to Cox officials.
Brands Seeing Gains
Full-year 2023 U.S. auto sales, based on vehicle counts by Kelley Blue Book, are forecast to finish near 15.5 million units, an increase of 11.6% from 13.9 million in 2022 and ahead of Cox Automotive’s forecast from one year ago.
Large year-over-year gains in 2023 have been delivered by Honda, Nissan, General Motors and Tesla. The Hyundai Motor Group, with Genesis, Hyundai, and Kia brands, had a strong year in the U.S. market, growing sales by more than 12% and passing Stellantis—maker of Jeep, Ram, Dodge, Chrysler and other brands—to take the fourth spot in overall U.S. sales, behind Ford.
Stellantis strategy of lower volume and higher revenue per sales will result in being the only carmaker to post lower year-over-year sales.
What is on the Lot
At the beginning of December, new-vehicle days’ supply is closer to the pre-pandemic norm than in the last several years. New-vehicle inventory volume was just below 2.6 million at the start of December 2023, higher by more than 900,000 units from one year ago.
Meanwhile, days’ supply had climbed to 71, up from 60 at the start of November and more than 17 days higher than December 2022.
Fleet sales were expected to rise in December after experiencing two months of pull-back in commercial and rental vehicle sales. The lower fleet volume was particularly affected by big drops in fleet sales due to the UAW strike.
“With the strike now in the rearview mirror, December is expected to show a return to stronger fleet activity, and these sales could have a big impact on the month’s final tally,” said Chesbrough.
